Brazil's election shock: How the NCFX 24/7 feed captured USD/BRL price discovery throughout the weekend
The Brazilian real experienced its biggest reported one-day move since 1999 on Monday 26 October. While the onshore market was closed over the weekend, election results unfolded and political uncertainty mounted.
USD/BRL jumped from Friday's PTAX fixing of 5.0377 to 5.5007 at Monday's fixing, a move of 9.2%. Throughout this period, the NCFX 24/7 feed provided a continuous price reference, capturing the evolving market response well before the next official fixing became available.
Continuous price discovery
Weekends don't stop risk. They only stop conventional onshore markets from pricing it.
For institutions managing BRL exposure over a weekend, that gap creates a challenge. Political developments and unexpected events can materially change market expectations while traditional pricing references remain unavailable.
During Brazil's election, the NCFX 24/7 feed provided continuous visibility into the repricing as events unfolded, rather than leaving institutions to wait until Monday for an updated official reference.
By Monday afternoon, the NCFX 24/7 feed had reached 5.501, almost identical to Monday's PTAX fixing of 5.5007.
The value lies not simply in where the price ended up, but in the continuous price discovery the NCFX 24/7 feed provided along the way.
Tracking the election shock: The NCFX 24/7 feed timeline
1. Election results — Initial repricing
Following the close of polling at 22:00, the NCFX 24/7 feed started at 5.056, close to Friday's PTAX fixing. As the vote count tightened and Datafolha projections pointed towards Lula, USD/BRL climbed to approximately 5.24 (+4.0%).
By the time the electoral authority declared Lula re-elected at approximately 00:12, the outcome appeared largely reflected in the price.
2. Victory speech — Sharp market reaction
During Lula's victory speech, the NCFX 24/7 feed jumped from 5.24 to 5.455 (+8.3% relative to Friday's PTAX) in just four minutes, reaching that level at approximately 01:25.
The timing of subsequent political announcements makes it difficult to attribute the move to any single event.
3. Overnight — Prices stabilise
Following the initial shock, the NCFX 24/7 feed held within a 5.35–5.41 range, averaging 5.381 (+6.8%), approximately three-quarters of the eventual PTAX move.
Despite continued political uncertainty, pricing remained comparatively stable.
4. Monday morning — Continued repricing
As London trading activity developed, the NCFX 24/7 feed eased to 5.249 (+4.2%) at 08:48 before climbing again from 10:30, reaching 5.44 (+8.0%) by 12:00.
By 13:15, the NCFX 24/7 feed had reached 5.501 (+9.2%), closely matching Monday's official PTAX fixing of 5.5007.
When markets close, risk doesn't
The Brazilian election illustrates the value of continuous, independent FX pricing when conventional market references are unavailable.
For banks, asset managers and trading firms, the NCFX 24/7 feed provides an additional reference for monitoring currency exposures, assessing valuations and preparing for changing market conditions.
Markets may close, but currency risk continues to evolve. The NCFX 24/7 feed provides continuous price discovery, 24 hours a day, seven days a week.
Contact NCFX to learn more about the NCFX 24/7 feed and its available currency coverage.
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