Illuminating FX Price Discovery When Markets Are Closed

For much of my more than two decades as a fund manager, the reopening of global currency markets on Sunday evening—often observed from London—was a moment defined by uncertainty. This was especially true following major weekend events. Market participants will recall the intense speculation surrounding reopening levels after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, with USD/JPY in particular serving as a focal point.  

Recent volatility in the FX markets around possible central bank intervention in USD/JPY reminded me of those times, bringing into focus the value of new data we have created at NCFX.   

Even during an ordinary weekend—or when trading restricted NDF markets—these dark periods between market close and reopen presented both risk and opportunity. As major currencies and select Asian pairs began trading first, I, like many others, searched for signals that could help gauge the appropriate magnitude of moves in other currencies, such as BRL. Those signals often provided necessary clarity on whether to transact immediately or wait for further price discovery. In such environments, even partial information could confer a meaningful advantage.  

Historically, that advantage was derived from cross-market correlation models. While occasionally insightful, these approaches were inherently unstable and limited in reliability. Yet in the absence of continuous price signals, they remained one of the few available sources of informational edge.  

Today, with the opening of new markets that limitation is less restrictive. A Practical 24x7 FX from Crypto Feed—Powered by Digital Liquidity  

NCFX has pioneered the development of a new class of data: 24x7 FX from Crypto pricing derived from continuous trading activity on digital asset exchanges. The NCFX 24x7 FX from Crypto Feed currently covers 14 fiat currencies, providing uninterrupted insight during periods when traditional FX markets are closed. 

By aggregating prices across multiple cross-currency routing paths, NCFX constructs a robust consensus mid-rate, while also preserving granular transparency into the effective rates implied by each individual route.   

New Data – New Insight  

What does our new 24x7 FX from Crypto Feed data tell you about recent events? Below is a chart that shows the close and open of the fiat market in USD/JPY during the weekend of 23- 25/1/2026 and the continuous 24x7 FX from Crypto Feed over the same period. This weekend was of particular interest because expectation of central bank intervention in support of the yen was heightened.  

At first look you can see that there is usually basis between the two rates over the observed period and that the dollar generally trades richer in the fiat market than in the 24x7 FX from  Crypto market. We can also see that the decline of the USD into the close on Friday was largely mirrored by the 24x7 FX from Crypto market. Once the fiat market closed, the USD/JPY 24x7 FX from Crypto rate holds onto its gains and remains steady before spiking stronger near the open.  The two markets then appear to be largely synchronised shortly after the open. We would be the first to say our data is new and that one swallow doesn’t make a summer; but there are clearly avenues of research that appear attractive to explore.   

Early Insights, Real-World Relevance  

Our initial analysis of our new dataset suggests some compelling insights. During overlapping trading hours, we observe insights from considering the magnitude and stability—or, in some cases, instability—of the basis between the traditional fiat FX markets and their digital counterparts. And as we noted above, over weekends, pricing in digital markets can at least at times provide empirical evidence that appears to inform expectations around fiat market reopening levels. More data is needed to confirm these conclusions, but this avenue of investigation looks promising. 

We intend to conduct further research, including into how and when this data offers insight into early-stage price formation as liquidity returns following the weekend— as mentioned earlier, an area that has historically been devoid of promising inputs.  

Transparency That Supports Market Efficiency  

Should arbitrage opportunities emerge between fiat and digital FX pricing, their exploitation will naturally be left to the market, subject to prevailing transaction costs and execution constraints. Over time, we would expect any such activity to compress and stabilise the basis between these markets, as economically viable deviations are systematically traded away.  

In this way, NCFX’s 24x7 FX from Crypto Feed does more than deliver data. It offers the potential for opportunity and transparency to a previously unobservable phase of FX price discovery. This new data product is accessible through our API as well as available to be consumed on 70+ blockchains through our official partnership with industry-standard oracle platform Chainlink 

About the author  

Paul Lambert Chief Executive Officer, New Change FX 

Paul Lambert is a former fund manager with over two decades of experience in global FX markets. He began his career at the Bank of England, served as European Head of FX Strategy at Citibank, held senior roles at Deutsche Asset Management, UBS Asset Management and Insight Investment, and later founded a global macro hedge fund at Polar Capital.